Jul
13th

Expected breakout for Citigroup’s share price

Posted by admin

As of July 12, Citigroup’s share price has almost broken out of its trading range of $3.70 and $4.10, gearing up for a breakout of share price. This has 2 implications.

1) The volume of block selling of Fed’s Citigroup shares were lesser than buying volume, resulting the share price to inch higher. There weren’t any unusual increase of volume traded suggesting that there aren’t much market movements. Thus it may not be a good sign, since the brokers may resume or increase the liquidation volume once again.

2) Based on EMH Efficient Market Hypothesis, the price we see today had priced in market risk, involving entire market’s movement, the release of Q3 company P&L results, as well as the possible good news in the Finance sector. This will definitely push prices up higher as demand increase for Citigroup.

So what are the signs we can expect to see ? Based on these 2 analysis, I am predicting the general 2-6 weeks price movements.

1) If the volume increases, even before or after the release of earning seasons, there might be a chance of Citigroup share price hitting 5-10% higher than what it is at $4 range. That will be about $4.20 to $4.40, keeping in mind the ongoing block sale.

2) Given the good market and strong Profits for Citigroup, we may see a surge of share price, followed by some cool down period, once again reaching the range of $4.20 and $4.40

Thus it may be a good time to already own some small positions, though I am not suggesting you to bet on it at such a mid-high price, depending on your risk level.

Disclaimer: The author have positions in Citigroup (Public, NYSE:C).

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Jun
12th

My Current “Growth” Portfolio Allocation

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The markets are being volatile this month and previous month, where the CBOE VIX Volatility Index went way above its usual mark to over 30 points.

That was when portfolios should be having some kind of balance, hedging with some strategies so we can minimize the great pluinge on Long positions. In fact if you manage to pull it off well, protecting the Long side equities positions with some Shorts, minimizing to a lost of 0% or greater, that would make your fund very attractive.

With the CBOE VIX index down to below 30, we see a shift in portfolios. Currently this is my current portfolio:

35% Long-Term Equity (6mth – 1yr)
10% Short-Term Equity (1-3mth)
55% High Yield/growth stocks

In fact I should retain a 10% cash in my portfolio, but instead I went all in to be invested 100%. The 55% of dividend Long positions should cover me some of the loses taken during May where I liquidated some of my positions.

If by mid June the market volatility drops, I am looking at lowering the Yields and Short term term while putting more at the Long terms. Staying at cash is a good idea, for the markets can once again go into volatile and mixed mindset again. That’s when Shorts and Hedging strategies will take place again.

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May
26th

What is this site managemoneyonline.com all about ?

Posted by admin

Managemoneyonline.com is a website, a blog that I have created to write down my ideas and experience I have encountered. These serve as a track record for me and myself and for everyone else to learn. Trading and investments is a difficult tasks.

I lost quite a few grands, about $9,000 for my first year of noobish trading. That was after the 2008 financial crisis and it was some bull run to 2010, but I still lost. While I am trying to learn “everything”, yes you heard it, everything about trading and investments, I will jot down some of my experiences, and strategies as well.

Well the main key words for this site, manage money, already tells you that I am all about managing money. Afterall, no matter how daring and how much risk profile you want to take, Wall street, or the stocks market is just a random reactions of ups and downs. No repeated patterns no nothing, because if there is, even a 3 year old kid could understand.

With that bad experience, I’ve went deeper and deeper into this art or science. On the second year of my trading, I started building a small portfolio, instead of blindly trading. Reading up and understanding even more detailed into investment banks, financial institutions and hedge funds, I wanted to do what the big guys are doing.

While I go about managing my small little portfolio, hoping to beat the market and growing equity, by measuring my performance with the general market / hedge funds. With strategies such as statistical arbitrage, law of one price, portfolio rebalancing and management, risk management, long/short equities, high income stocks and dividends, and other strategies that I’ve tried, this is the outcome of a true results of a trader who trades his own personal account.

I hope I am able to grow my own funds through this never ending, tiring process of seeking The Truth, the Alpha.

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